Utshintsho kwiLogic yokuRhweba ngeMarike yeSoya: Amaxabiso aphantsi koxinzelelo emva kokuphela kwezinto ezibangela ukuxhalaba, i-El Niño yinguqu ephambili
Iimarike zesoya zehlabathi zifumene ukunyuka okulandele ukurhoxa kwiintsuku zamva nje. Emva kokuba impembelelo ye-bullish yengxelo ye-US Department of Agriculture's May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ibekwe ixabiso, iChicago Board of Trade soybean futures inyuke kancinci yaya kufutshane neenyanga ezimbini. Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso emva koko ehla kakhulu ngenxa yedatha yokuthumela ngaphandle isoya e-US ephantsi kakhulu, ulindelo oluqinileyo lwesivuno esikhulu eMzantsi Melika, kunye nokuhla kwexesha lonyaka ekugayweni kwesoya e-US. Kwangaxeshanye, uluhlu lweempahla zesoya eTshayina luhlala lukwizinga eliphezulu leminyaka emininzi kwixesha lonyaka, ngelixa abathengi abasezantsi bethatha isimo sokuthenga ngononophelo. Ngolwakhiwo olubuthathaka ngokubanzi lwemfuno yokubonelela, i-Chinese soybean complex futures ilandele amaxabiso e-CBOT kwicala kodwa ayisebenzanga kakuhle koogxa bayo baphesheya.
Amaxabiso eSoya aseMelika ayanyuka aze abuyele umva njengoko ukuxhalaba kwengxelo kuncitshiswa
Ingxelo ye-USDA kaMeyi WASDE, iphepha lokuqala leemfuno zobonelelo kunyaka wokuthengisa ka-2026/2027, ngokubanzi ikhomba kwimveliso ephezulu kunye nezitokhwe ezisezantsi. Ngokwengxelo, indawo etyalwe iisoya ezintsha inyuke yaya kwi-84.7 yezigidi zeehektare, imveliso inyuke yaya kwi-4.435 yezigidi zeebhashel, kodwa izitokhwe eziphelileyo zehla ngokungalindelekanga zaya kwi-310 yezigidi zeebhashel. I-US soy crush inyuswe yaya kwi-2.75 yezigidi zeebhashel, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwandisiwe kwaya kwi-1.63 yezigidi zeebhashel. Ngenxa yoko, ukusetyenziswa kweesoya e-US kukhule nge-218 yezigidi zeebhashel, kudlula ukwanda kwemveliso ye-173 yezigidi zeebhashel.
Emva kokukhutshwa kwengxelo, ikamva lesoya le-CBOT lifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu phantse kwiinyanga ezimbini ngenxa yemvakalelo yokunyuka, kunye nezikhundla eziqikelelweyo ze-fund zifikelela kwizivumelwano ezingama-236,600. Imarike ifikelele kulindelo oluqinisekileyo lokunyuka kwemfuno ye-biofuel, ukuthengwa kweTshayina, kunye nokuqinisa izixhobo.
Abahlalutyi baqaphele ukuba ingxelo kaMeyi inike umgangatho wexeshana kwimarike yesoya yaseMelika kodwa ikwashiye indawo yorhwebo oluqhutywa kulindelo olulandelayo. Amanani engxelo awazange achaze ngokupheleleyo impembelelo embi yamaxabiso aphezulu ezichumisi kunye neqabaka eliphantsi lobushushu eMidwest kwisivuno, nto leyo eshiya indawo yengxelo kaJuni Acreage kunye nokuqikelelwa kwemozulu kaJulayi-Agasti.
Emva kokuba izinto ezibangela ukunyuka kwexabiso zibekwe phezulu, ingqiqo yemarike yabuyela ngokukhawuleza kwiziseko ezibuthathaka. Ubuthathaka obuqhubekayo kwimfuno yokuthumela ngaphandle iisoya e-US, ukhuphiswano oluqinisiweyo oluvela kwisivuno saseMzantsi Melika, ukwehla kwexesha lonyaka kwimveliso yeesoya e-US, kunye nokuthathwa kwenzuzo yimali konke oku kube negalelo ekurhoxeni okukhulu kwikamva leesoya ze-CBOT, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukuguquguquka kwexesha elifutshane kunyuke.
I-El Niño Isitshixo Sokuqhawula Ingxaki, Kodwa Impembelelo Ilindele Isiqinisekiso SikaJulayi-Agasti
I-El Niño ibonwa njengotshintsho oluphambili oluqhubeka ngexesha lokukhula kweembotyi zesoya lika-2026/2027. I-US Climate Prediction Center iqikelela ukuba amathuba okuba i-El Niño ivele ngoMeyi-Julayi angama-82% kwaye iqhubeke nokuba sebusika baseMantla eHemisphere. I-European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ilindele ukuba isiganeko se-El Niño sifikelele kwinqanaba laso elinamandla kakhulu kwirekhodi ngoNovemba.
Kwiimbotyi zesoya zase-US, impembelelo ye-El Niño ibonisa ukungalingani okucacileyo kwexesha. Ngexesha lokutyala, i-El Niño idla ngokuzisa iimeko ezimanzi kwi-US Midwest, inceda ukufuma komhlaba kunye nenkqubela phambili yokutyala. Ukutyala iimbotyi zesoya zase-US okwangoku kugqitywe ngama-49%, ngaphambi komndilili weminyaka emihlanu. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba amandla e-El Niño adlula ulindelo ngexesha lokukhula elibalulekileyo ngoJulayi-Agasti, kunokuzisa imozulu eshushu neyomileyo kwi-Midwest, nto leyo esongela amandla okuvelisa iimbotyi zesoya zase-US. Oku kubeka isiseko seengxelo ze-acreage ezilandelayo kunye nokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso okuqhutywa yimozulu ngoJulayi nango-Agasti.
Kwimarike yesoya yaseTshayina, ukuba ikamva lesoya yeCBOT liqala ukuqokelela iprimiyamu yomngcipheko wemozulu, iindleko zokungenisa iisoya zaseTshayina ziya kunyuka, nto leyo eya kunyusa ngokuthe ngqo iindleko zemveliso yesoya kunye Ioyile yeSoya kunye nokuxhasa amaxabiso eembotyi zesoya zaseTshayina zexesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, kwixesha elifutshane, ibhalansi ebuthathaka yokubonelela ngempahla kunye nemfuno yeembotyi zesoya zaseTshayina ezingenisiweyo ayinakutshintsha.
Lilonke, i-El Niño yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yolindelo oluqinileyo lwemarike, kodwa impembelelo yayo yokwenyani ayizukuqinisekiswa kude kube lixesha elibalulekileyo lokukhula kweembotyi zesoya zaseMelika ngoJulayi-Agasti. Ngexesha elifutshane, ibangela ngakumbi iimvakalelo zemarike; kwixesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelide, inokuba yinto ebalulekileyo ephelisa ukugcwala kobonelelo lweembotyi zesoya kwihlabathi liphela.
I-Soybean Complex yaseTshayina iphantsi koxinzelelo njengoko izinto ezisisiseko ziqhuba iLogic yoRhwebo
Imarike yesoya yaseTshayina okwangoku inobonelelo oluninzi, imfuno ebuthathaka, kunye nokunyuka kwempahla. Kulindeleke ukuba ukufika kwesoya kudlule kwi-10 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye inani lilonke elifike kwikota yesibini liqikelelwa kwi-33 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo eqinisekisa ukuba kukho ipatheni yokubonelela ekhululekileyo. Amanani okusebenza kwe-crusher abuyele kwi-65%–70%, umthamo we-soya crush uyanda, kwaye zombini ii-port soya kunye ne-soymeal stocks zikwinqanaba eliphezulu leminyaka emininzi kule sizini, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kubekho enye indawo yokugcina. Kwangaxeshanye, iNational Grain Trading Center iqalise kwakhona iifandesi zeesoya ezingenisiweyo, yongeza kubonelelo lwemarike.
Imfuno isaqhubeka incipha. Iifektri ezisezantsi zilumkile kakhulu ekuthengeni kwazo, zisebenzisa indlela yokunxibelelana ngomlomo ngaphandle kokubeka izinto ezininzi ezingalindelekanga. Ubuninzi bezinto ezithathwayo ziyancipha inyanga nenyanga, kwaye urhwebo lwezivumelwano zenyanga ezikufutshane luncinci, ngokungafaniyo nokunyuka korhwebo lwezivumelwano zenyanga ezirhoxisiweyo. Abakhuhli bagcina inzuzo phambili besebenzisa imida emihle yokukrazula ekwisikrini, ngelixa abadlali abaphakathi nangaphantsi belinde ecaleni malunga namaxabiso aphezulu enyanga ezikufutshane, nto leyo ebonisa ukungakhathali okukhulu komngcipheko.
Ukutyumza imida yesiTshayina Iprosesa yeSoyaokwangoku azilunganga ngokubanzi, zityhafisa izikhuthazo zokusebenza kwe-crusher. Kutshanje, ingqiqo yokurhweba ngemarike yesoya itshintshe ukusuka ekulindelweni ukuya ekujoliswe kwisiseko. Ngokubanzi, umbono wexesha eliphakathi wemarike yesoya yaseTshayina uhlala ungowokubonelela okwaneleyo kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka, nto leyo ebeka uxinzelelo oluqhubekayo kumaxabiso antsonkothileyo eesoya.
Ukuya phambili, ingqalelo yemarike kufuneka igxile kwisantya sokufika kweesoya ezingenisiweyo, iishedyuli zokuqala kunye nokuvalwa kweenkqubo zokusika, kunye nokubuyiselwa kwemfuno kwicandelo lemfuyo.
Isiphelo
Ingxelo ye-USDA kaMeyi WASDE ibonise imveliso ephezulu kunye nezitokhwe ezisezantsi. Njengoko iindaba ezikhawulezayo zifikelele kwixabiso, ikamva lesoya le-CBOT liye laba liguquguqukayo ngakumbi. I-El Niño ivele njengenguqu eyintloko eqhubeka ngexesha lokukhula kwesoya e-US, nangona impembelelo yayo yokwenyani isabonakala. Okwangoku, imakethi yesoya yaseTshayina inesakhiwo esibuthathaka sokufunwa kobonelelo, kwaye ingqiqo yorhwebo itshintshile ukusuka ekulindelweni ukuya ekulawulweni yinyani. Iimakethi zesoya zehlabathi zingene kwisigaba esitsha sokuguquguquka okuphezulu, apho ulindelo kunye nenyani zidibene ngakumbi.
